Research papers, briefings and recorded conversations from the Institute. Educational, sourced and free to read.
Research Papers
Longer studies on money, markets and economic history, published with their sources.
15 October 2026
M2, Divisia M4, and the Limits of Real-Time Monetary Signals
37 pages · Felix Nikolas Prehn
The surge in money growth preceded the 2021 to 2023 inflation. The paper tests whether M2 and Divisia M4 would have improved forecasts made with the information available at the time. The benchmark already includes inflation, supply-chain pressure and a real-time output gap.
15 October 2026
What Public Data Can and Cannot Say About the 2024 to 2025 Gold and Silver Dislocation
40 pages · Felix Nikolas Prehn
Gold for delivery on COMEX traded above the London benchmark during the 2024 to 2025 dislocation. The paper tests whether tariff announcements moved the premium in the direction the tariff-risk explanation requires. It uses explicit futures contracts, financing costs and dated event windows.
1 October 2026
Age-cohort-specific inflation rates and generational inequality in the United States, 2000 to 2024
28 pages · Felix Nikolas Prehn
The Consumer Price Index describes one average consumer unit, yet households at different stages of the life course buy different baskets. The paper constructs age-group-specific price indices for the United States from 2000 to 2024, using Consumer Expenditure Survey shares for six age groups and seven CPI-U component indices, and asks what they imply for generational fairness.
25 September 2026
Monetary expansion, asset prices and the asset-poor in the United States, 2000 to 2026
19 pages · Felix Nikolas Prehn
Between January 2000 and June 2026 the US money stock grew four times faster than consumer prices. Asset values followed the expansion far more closely than the cost of living did.
Indices
Monthly measures compiled by the Institute from public data. Each is free to download, cite and embed.
Monthly · Felix Nikolas Prehn
The working time a US production worker needs, at the average hourly wage, to buy a fixed basket of the S&P 500, gold and the median new house. Base 2000 = 100. Monthly from 1964, updated on the morning of the US jobs report.
Briefings
Briefings by Felix Nikolas Prehn on current market events. Each opens in the browser without registration.
Podcast
Felix Nikolas Prehn publishes on YouTube. The podcast is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Castbox, Pocket Casts and Audacy.
The Felix Nikolas Prehn Podcast
